It's
about the dynamics that kick in with the race when it gets down to 2-3 candidates:
That status quo changed Dean. That's what got him to that high place where he wasn't rolling. Three or four weeks after Al Gore endorses this and now the press says -- and I'm now talking about the maliciousness now, I'm talking about the equation changes. It's now, "If you vote for Howard Dean in Iowa, he's the nominee." It's not, "Are we voting for change or status quo?" Howard Dean wins that. It's now, "If you vote for Howard Dean he's the nominee." So it's now are you ready to do that or you're not ready do that. The people of Iowa did not reject Howard Dean. What they said is, "Not yet. Not ready to do this." Yes, is a vote for dean. No, I am not ready to this looks like a flight away from the frontrunner. This happened to Bill Clinton in Colorado with Jerry Brown. It happened to Jimmy Carter in 1976, Jerry Brown again. It happened to Mike Dukakis with Jessie Jackson winning Michigan. The problem is that that whole movement got moved up before there had ever been a single vote. Now guess what is going to happen? I'll tell you exactly what's going to happen. John Kerry has been rolling. It's been, "Are we voting for momentum and he can win?" "Well, yeah that's we are voting for because I don't know anything else about him."
He wins Virginia and Tennessee tomorrow nigh, the press is going to say, "There is one thing left, Wisconsin. If John Kerry wins in Wisconsin he is the nominee." And for the first time since Iowa you're going to have a state where the equation is no longer change verses status quo or momentum and winning, but just like Iowa, if you vote for John Kerry you're saying, "Shut it down, he's it." And at that moment, every time in our history -- in the Democratic party's history -- whether it was Colorado, Iowa, wherever that happened, voters moved away from the frontrunner and said, "No we're no ready yet." I'm not saying that's going to happen, but it can happen and if it does then the fight is there, and in March 2 if this continues. And there's a chance right now for this moment to continue to build within a primary-nomination fight by Dean for America. If Kerry wins Wisconsin, it is over guys. It's over. He's the nominee.
Trippi might only be thinking of Dean here, and not the possibility that Kerry is going to have to face Edwards one-on-one for two weeks of campaigning. Trippi is correct, this dynamic does almost always happen in the Democratic primaries, usually after a winnowing period-- though it's already happened with Dean, the then-frontrunner, in Iowa. Because of the compressed schedule, the time for the dynamic to work hasn't been able to happen since NH & IA. It keeps getting pushed back (the slingshot effect), perhaps even further than 2/17, maybe not again, because of the compressed contest. But even after 2/17 there's time, with still one dynamic to play itself out.
True, things look pretty boring from here on out, but presidential nomination campaigns always narrow down to just two people. If Dean gets 3rd in Wisconsin, his role of frontrunner-turned-insurgent to be the alternative-to-Kerry is over, and the contest gets down to a choice of Edwards or Kerry. That race could shift before 3/2. Edwards has already overtaken Dean for second in Wisconsin, but Kerry has a +30% lead. Depending on how much that changes before Tuesday might determine the lead-in for the next two weeks of campaigning between the frontrunner and the alternative.