John Kerry, following Howard Dean in September of 2003, opted out of public financing with a challenge [thought up, no doubt, by some clever by seven-eighths consultant],
saying:
"...the kind of President I will be. Today, I also issue a challenge to Governor Dean. Senator Russ Feingold has called on all Democratic candidates who forgo matching funds to pledge that they will not spend more than the limit of $45 million until the nomination is decided. I accept that – and I call on Howard Dean to do the same. To show America that his decision was about beating George Bush and the special interests and not just about grabbing an advantage in the primaries."
Kerry began January having spent about $27 million, leaving him $18 million to spend in the nominating season, to remain under the limit.
For January:
Kerry raised about $4.1 million from contributors and spent $7.1 million, according to his campaign finance report for January, which was released yesterday. Kerry mortgaged his family's Boston home to finance campaign loans. The campaign began February with $2.1 million in the bank and $7.2 million in debts [Most of the debt was a $6.4 million loan he made to his own campaign].
Quick math would lead one to see that Kerry's spending in 2003 of $27 million added $11.2 million in January, putting him at over $38 million beginning in February.
So, for Kerry to keep his pledge to abide in spending less than $45 Million before the Democratic nominee was chosen, he'd had less than $7 million to spend beginning February 1st, three weeks ago, until... Hey, has Kerry's campaign yet admitted to breaking the pledge? The nominee has not been chosen, but the expenditure math thus far ($11M in Jan, 3 weeks into Feb) leads to the conclusion that Kerry has already spent $7 Million in Feb, and is now over $45 million.
John Edwards is abiding by the public financing laws for matching funds, so he's limited to $45 million in total expenditures. Through January, Edwards has raised $22.5 million, including $5 million in public financing. Beginning with February, that left Edwards with $22.5 million remaining in funds available to him, combined from both raised and matching (with the next public matching infusion due on March 1st).
As for Bush:
These figures stand in stark contrast to the position of the Bush-Cheney '04 Committee. With $104.4 million and no primary opposition, it is the richest presidential campaign in American history.
The Bush campaign, which plans to raise an additional $25 million to $55 million, must spend all the money by the end of August, when the president is assured of renomination at the Republican convention.
Bush and the Democratic candidates plan to accept about $75 million in public money for the post-convention election campaign.
The DNC will have about $15 million available by the end of March, which pales in comparison to the Bush money (not that money means everything). Not until the Dem convention in late July, 4 months from now, will the $75 million be available to the Democrats.
As for Edwards, in the short-term, with the matching funds, he's probably on parity with Kerry for the March primaries; but in the long-haul of the next four months, he's going to be riding on a shoestring and walloped in bought advertising.
For Kerry, he can always pile on Fleet-laden leveraged debt that Heinz can pay off later, and it is what it is. In the short-term against Edwards, Kerry's left with arguing some thin-cred nuance like, "the media has declared me the nominee". But if Edwards catches, Kerry's also going to have to figure out a way to nuance that his spending more than $45 million, besides breaking his pledge, is about beating George Bush and the special interests and not just about grabbing an advantage in the primaries.
Right now, "Kerry broke his pledge" is probably not the kind of headline that Kerry's campaign wants to see right now, but that's the gamble of a gimmick that he took.