Anyone see "Miracle" yet? Zogby says Kerry 47, Dean 23, and Edwards 20 percent. Do you believe that either Edwards or Dean can pull out a victory in Wisconsin? Post your predictions.
Edwards followed up on his endorsement from Madison's Capital Times with another this morning (post-Zogby) in Wisconsin's largest newspaper, Milwaukee's Journal Sentinal.
Here's some further analysis of the Zogby poll:
Among the favorable/unfavorable ratings, Edwards and Kerry are essentially tied, with Edwards having a 4% less unfavorable rating than Kerry.
Kerry: 71/22
Edwards: 67/18
Dean: 61/30
Dean's done a good job, spending a week campaigning in Wisconsin, of changing some opinions, and raising his numbers. Among those aged 18-24, Dean's favorable rating is the highest, at 84 percent. Kerry scores his highest among those aged +70, at 81 percent.
Amongst the open primary likely voters, all three candidates beat Bush:
Kerry 59, Bush 32
Edwards 55, Bush 34
Dean 53, Bush 36
Interestingly, on this number, amongst Republican voters, Dean (9%) bests both Edwards (7%) and Kerry (5%) in crossover votes. This is offset amongst Democratic voters, where Kerry (2%) bests both Edwards (5%) and Dean (9%), among those voting for Bush.
The dynamics seem to have tightened a bit, but the same trends are present as prior competitive contests. Dean bests the others amongst the younger voters, Kerry crushes the others amongst the older voters, and Edwards places nearly even across the age groups. Overall, Kerry is thought by 74% to be likely to beat Bush in 2004, Edwards by 53%, and Dean by 42%.
As for a potential few wildcards that are present. The newspaper endorsements might cause older readers to take pause, so that's where Edwards might take away from Kerry. Among those who didn't primary in 2000, that are planning on voting in 2004, Kerry only leads Dean by two, 39-37 percent. Dean also leads Kerry among single voters, 38-31 percent; but amongst the married, Kerry leads with 51 percent.
There's obviously been some movement toward Dean in the last week that shows up in this poll, and again, Edwards is showing his late surge. Can Kerry hold his double-digit lead? Probably, his support is stronger, surprisingly, than either Edwards or Dean. There would need to be a perfect scenario for either Dean or Edwards to come close (Dean strong in turnout, Edwards taking from Kerry). Kerry leads in all regions of the state, it's his to lose, a win by less than 5% would count as a shocker.
